· 13 min read
Why older Australians expect to delay retirement in 2026
What a 2026 survey says about delayed retirement intentions, how ABS retirement ages differ, and a worksheet for testing a household funding gap.
Read insight →Research lens
Evidence quality
How to separate established evidence, provisional signals and unsupported claims before making a decision.
Articles through this lens
43 research notes· 12 min read
Term deposit or share ETF? Match the money to its date
Compare a fixed-date Australian term deposit with a diversified share ETF using the payment date, shortfall risk, access terms, tax timing and a worked A$30,000 example.
Read insight →· 11 min read
ASX solid-state battery stocks: LIS, CRR and ATC stages
A filing-based comparison of Li-S Energy, Critical Resources and Altech, separating semi-solid cells, lab research and a discontinued project.
Read insight →· 9 min read
Is Audit Shield worth it in Australia? A decision guide
Compare your Audit Shield premium with policy limits, covered professional fees, exclusions and your cash buffer using a practical Australian worksheet.
Read insight →· 13 min read
ASX 200 P/E ratio as at 22 September 2026
The ASX 200 P/E was 19.47 times trailing and 17.70 times FY1 on 22 September 2026 by State Street's index characteristics. Here is how to compare it properly.
Read insight →· 10 min read
Late tax return penalty in Australia: what happens and what to do next
Late lodgment is not one automatic fixed fine: confirm whether you had to lodge, lodge promptly, and treat any tax debt and interest separately.
Read insight →· 5 min read
Suncorp takeover: separate the bank sale from the Tokio Marine rumour
Separate the completed bank sale from the unconfirmed Tokio Marine report and test takeover-premium scenarios.
Read insight →· 8 min read
Private credit redemptions: what happens between a request and cash
A practical guide to notice periods, redemption limits, proportional allocation, valuation and settlement, with a worked Australian-dollar example.
Read insight →· 6 min read
Term deposit early withdrawal calculator: interest, fees and payout
Estimate what remains after an early interest adjustment and administration fee, using a worked ANZ example and your own bank's confirmed terms.
Read insight →· 9 min read
Take the redundancy payout or stay? Compare cash over the same year
Compare a redundancy payout with staying income over the same period, test time without work and lower pay, and check cash reserves before deciding.
Read insight →· 10 min read
How to build a term-deposit ladder when rates can change
Build a 3, 6, 9 and 12-month Australian term-deposit ladder around real spending dates, early-access rules, FCS limits, tax and rollover instructions.
Read insight →· 8 min read
Offset account vs savings account: the after-tax break-even test
Compare mortgage interest saved with savings interest kept after tax and product costs
Read insight →· 6 min read
Are Australians born in the 1990s worse off at the same age?
Compare Australians born in the 1990s with earlier cohorts at the same age using real income, home ownership, debt, super and inherited wealth.
Read insight →· 9 min read
Fixed, variable or refinance after an RBA rate rise: a break-even test
Compare fixed, variable, split and refinance choices using switching costs, offset value, the remaining term and three rate paths—not a single mortgage-rate forecast.
Read insight →· 8 min read
Can a Rooming House Really Earn a 10% Return?
Test an Australian rooming-house investment after vacancy, utilities, management, compliance, finance and exit costs, and separate property ownership from an operator business.
Read insight →· 8 min read
When an Australian Property Developer Enters Administration
A practical guide to Australian developer administration, off-the-plan buyer exposure, private-credit risk and the evidence that separates one project failure from system stress.
Read insight →· 7 min read
Debt recycling in Australia: trace the money before the tax claim
A plain-English map of offset cash, redraw borrowing, loan splits and mixed-purpose debt — plus the records and advice boundaries that matter.
Read insight →· 9 min read
Tariff walls have gaps: how to test enforcement before you invest
A practical way to test tariffs through legal scope, exemptions, origin rules, trade-flow changes and company margins rather than relying on headline rates.
Read insight →· 11 min read
Cash ETF or term deposit? Start with what the money must do
Compare FCS protection, access, market pricing, credit and duration risk, variable income and tax records before choosing where to hold near-term money.
Read insight →· 8 min read
Can Australia’s Power Grid Carry the AI Data-Centre Boom?
Australia’s data-centre opportunity is real, but a development announcement is not yet productive digital infrastructure.
Read insight →· 8 min read
What decides the winners in LLM platform competition
Model quality alone does not decide AI winners. Compare distribution, enterprise adoption, cost per accepted outcome, portability and cash flow by business model.
Read insight →· 8 min read
Iran sanctions and Hormuz recovery: two evidence chains
Separate legal authority, named sanctions and commercial enforcement from tanker transit, arrival and unloading before judging Iran pressure or Hormuz recovery.
Read insight →· 7 min read
A crypto breakout without a headline is not proof of a new bull market
A practical test separates spot demand, ETF creations, leverage, liquidations and reproducible breakout rules before calling a new crypto bull market.
Read insight →· 8 min read
Why cheaper AI tokens do not prove a company is saving money
A practical way to measure enterprise AI cost per accepted outcome, separate cash savings from capacity, and test management’s ROI claims.
Read insight →· 9 min read
Ampol’s refinery windfall: what would make the 2026 surge last?
Ampol’s 2026 profit surge came from scarce refining capacity and wide product spreads. These indicators show when the windfall is fading.
Read insight →· 10 min read
Is your mortgage offset actually working after refinancing?
How to verify that a mortgage offset is linked to the intended refinanced loan, estimate the interest benefit and document a lender remediation request.
Read insight →· 9 min read
What would make Arctic and Middle Corridor routes investable
Pilots, border hand-offs, infrastructure, insurance and cargo fit must be proven before either route becomes an investable alternative
Read insight →· 8 min read
How Canada’s retaliation can reach an Australian portfolio
The portfolio impact depends on separating measures already in force from Canada’s still-undeclared implementation details
Read insight →· 5 min read
Stablecoins can buy T-bills without solving America’s debt problem
Trace how stablecoin reserves can add demand for short US Treasury bills without eliminating fiscal deficits, long-bond supply, bank-funding or redemption risk.
Read insight →· 5 min read
How to test a physical silver shortage: seven indicators
Test a physical silver shortage through exchange stocks, open interest, futures curves, lease rates, fund holdings, regional premiums and real yields.
Read insight →· 5 min read
Why Australian house-price forecasts miss turning points
Treat Australian house-price forecasts as conditional maps by tracking credit, listings, seller behaviour and financial-stress signals before the price index turns.
Read insight →· 12 min read
AI’s debt boom: where data-centre risk sits off balance sheet
Follow AI data-centre funding through bonds, private credit, SPVs and leases to see who carries construction, refinancing and demand risk.
Read insight →· 7 min read
Can MACD pick a market top? Trend confirmation and risk control
Understand the MACD line, signal line, histogram and divergence, then turn them into position-sizing, no-trade and re-entry rules.
Read insight →· 6 min read
Is Australia still in an income recession? Five measures to watch
Five measures that show whether Australian living standards are recovering: wages, inflation, real household income per person, GDP per person and productivity.
Read insight →· 5 min read
AI exposure is not the end of work
How to separate AI task exposure from job loss, test a one-person AI business and control the risks of delegated software.
Read insight →· 5 min read
China AI is not one investment
How to separate China's power, robotics, models and property signals from the cash flows and holdings inside a China equity fund.
Read insight →· 5 min read
Does more market news improve investment decisions?
When market news improves an investment decision, when it mainly creates reassurance, and how to set evidence, conflict and stopping rules.
Read insight →· 7 min read
Australia’s A$1 trillion debt: policy constraint, not solvency alarm
What Australia’s A$1 trillion debt headline measures, why it is not a solvency alarm, and how interest costs can constrain policy and portfolios.
Read insight →· 8 min read
Why falling US bond yields are not always bullish for shares
Why lower US long-term yields can signal disinflation, growth fear, credit stress or technical demand, with implications for Australian portfolios.
Read insight →· 8 min read
mRNA cancer-vaccine trials: phase 2b evidence versus phase 3
Learn how to separate a promising phase 2b mRNA cancer-vaccine result from phase 3 success, regulatory approval and an investable company link.
Read insight →· 9 min read
Reading ASX earnings beyond the headline
Use CSL, Cochlear, Challenger and BHP results to compare statutory profit, adjusted earnings, cash flow, margins, guidance and capital returns.
Read insight →· 17 min read
Who captures the profit from AI investment: chipmakers or platforms?
Samsung, SK hynix, Alphabet and Amazon show where AI spending becomes cash flow, while Microsoft and Meta reveal commitments that current capex does not capture.
Read insight →· 15 min read
Why technical indicators cannot prove 90% odds
RSI, MACD and regression lines can repeat the same evidence. Learn how to test similarity claims, backtests and leveraged inverse ETP risk.
Read insight →